UK Diplomats Cautioned Regarding Armed Intervention to Overthrow Robert Mugabe

Newly disclosed documents reveal that the UK's diplomatic corps cautioned against British military action to overthrow the former Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, stating it was not considered a "viable option".

Policy Papers Reveal Deliberations on Handling a "Remarkably Robust" Dictator

Policy papers from Tony Blair's government show officials weighed up options on how best to handle the "depressingly healthy" 80-year-old dictator, who declined to leave office as the country fell into turmoil and financial collapse.

Faced with the ruling party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, Downing Street asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential options.

Isolation Strategy Deemed Not Working

Officials agreed that the UK's policy of isolating Mugabe and forging an international consensus for change was failing, having not managed to secure support from influential African states, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.

Options outlined in the files were:

• "Seek to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Go for tougher UK measures" such as freezing assets and closing the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the approach supported by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"Our experience shows from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that changing a government and/or its harmful policies is exceedingly difficult from the outside."

The FCO paper dismissed military action as not a "realistic option," adding that "The only nation for leading such a military operation is the UK. No other country (even the US) would be prepared to do so".

Cautionary Notes of Significant Losses and Legal Hurdles

It cautioned that military involvement would result in significant losses and have "serious consequences" for UK nationals in Zimbabwe.

"Short of a severe human and political catastrophe – resulting in massive violence, significant exodus of refugees, and instability in the region – we judge that no African state would support any efforts to remove Mugabe by force."

The paper adds: "We also believe that any other international ally (including the US) would sanction or participate in military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would not get."

Playing the Longer Game Recommended

The Prime Minister's advisor, a senior official, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "could become a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's leadership of the G8 to make 2005 "a pivotal year for Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been ruled out, "we probably have to accept that we must adopt a long-term strategy" and re-open talks with Mugabe.

Blair appeared to agree, noting: "We should work out a way of revealing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF up to this election and then subsequently, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a firm agreement."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had recommended critical re-engagement with Mugabe, though he understood the Prime Minister "would likely be appalled given all that Mugabe has said and done".

The Zimbabwean leader was finally deposed in a 2017 coup, at the age of 93. Earlier assertions that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure Thabo Mbeki into joining a armed alliance to overthrow Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the former UK premier.