The French Parliamentary Ongoing Crisis: The Dawn of a Fresh Governmental Reality

In October 2022, when Rishi Sunak took over as the UK's leader, he was the fifth consecutive UK leader to take up the position in six years.

Unleashed on the UK by Britain's EU exit, this signified exceptional governmental instability. So what term captures what is unfolding in the French Republic, now on its sixth prime minister in two years – with three in the past 10 months?

The latest prime minister, the recently reappointed Sébastien Lecornu, may have secured a temporary reprieve on that day, sacrificing Emmanuel Macron’s flagship pensions overhaul in exchange for opposition Socialist votes as the price for his government’s survival.

But it is, in the best case, a temporary fix. The EU’s second-largest economy is locked in a ongoing governmental crisis, the scale of which it has not witnessed for decades – possibly not since the establishment of its Fifth Republic in 1958 – and from which there seems no simple way out.

Minority Rule

Key background: from the moment Macron called an ill-advised snap general election in 2024, the nation has had a divided assembly split into three opposing factions – left, the far right and his own centrist coalition – without any group holding a clear majority.

At the same time, the country faces dual debt and deficit crises: its national debt level and deficit are now nearly double the EU threshold, and hard constitutional deadlines to pass a 2026 budget that at least begins to rein in spending are nigh.

Against that unforgiving backdrop, both Lecornu’s immediate predecessors – Michel Barnier, who lasted from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who took office from December 2024 to September 2025 – were removed by parliament.

In September, the leader named his trusted associate Lecornu as his latest PM. But when, just over a fortnight later, Lecornu presented his government team – which proved to be much the same as the old one – he encountered anger from allies and opponents alike.

To such an extent that the following day, he stepped down. After just 27 days in office, Lecornu became the shortest-lived premier in recent French history. In a respectful address, he blamed political intransigence, saying “partisan attitudes” and “certain egos” would make his job virtually unworkable.

Another twist in the tale: shortly after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron asked him to stay on for another 48 hours in a last-ditch effort to salvage cross-party backing – a task, to put it mildly, filled with challenges.

Next, two of Macron’s former PMs publicly turned on the struggling leader. Meanwhile, the far-right National Rally (RN) and radical left France Unbowed (LFI) refused to meet Lecornu, promising to vote down all future administrations unless there were early elections.

Lecornu persisted in his duties, engaging with all willing listeners. At the conclusion of his extension, he appeared on television to say he believed “a path still existed” to prevent a vote. The president’s office confirmed the president would name a fresh premier two days later.

Macron honored his word – and on Friday appointed … Sébastien Lecornu, again. So recently – with Macron helpfully sniping from the sidelines that the country’s rival political parties were “fuelling division” and “entirely to blame for the turmoil” – was Lecornu’s moment of truth. Would he endure – and can he pass that vital budget?

In a high-stakes speech, the young prime minister outlined his financial plans, giving the centre-left Socialist party (PS), who oppose Macron’s controversial pension changes, what they were expecting: Macron’s flagship reform would be frozen until 2027.

With the conservative Les Républicains (LR) already on board, the Socialists said they would not back censorship votes tabled against Lecornu by the far right and radical left – meaning the government should survive those ballots, due on Thursday.

It is, however, by no means certain to be able to approve its €30bn austerity budget: the PS clearly stated that it would be seeking more concessions. “This move,” said its head, Olivier Faure, “is just the start.”

A Cultural Shift

The problem is, the greater concessions he makes to the left, the more opposition he'll face from the right. And, similar to the Socialists, the conservatives are themselves divided over how to handle the new government – some are still itching to topple it.

A look at the seat numbers shows how difficult his mission – and longer-term survival – will be. A combined 264 lawmakers from the RN, radical-left LFI, Greens, Communists and hardline-right UDR seek his removal.

To succeed, they need a majority of 288 votes in parliament – so if they can convince only 24 of the PS’s 69 members or the LR’s 47 (or both) to vote with them, Macron’s fifth unstable premier in 24 months is, similar to his forerunners, toast.

Few would bet against that happening sooner rather than later. Although, by some miracle, the dysfunctional assembly musters collective will to approve a budget this year, the prospects for the government beyond that look bleak.

So does an exit exist? Snap elections would be unlikely to solve the problem: polls suggest nearly all parties except the RN would lose seats, but there would still be no clear majority. A new prime minister would face the same intractable arithmetic.

An alternative might be for Macron himself to resign. After a presidential vote, his successor would dissolve parliament and aim for a legislative majority in the ensuing legislative vote. But that, too, is uncertain.

Surveys show the future president will be Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella. There is at least an strong possibility that French electorate, having chosen a far-right leader, might reconsider giving them parliamentary power.

Ultimately, France may not emerge from its quagmire until its politicians acknowledge the changed landscape, which is that clear majorities are a thing of the past, winner-takes-all no longer applies, and negotiation doesn't mean defeat.

Many think that cultural shift will not be possible under the existing governmental framework. “This isn't a standard political crisis, but a crise de régime” that will endure indefinitely.

“The system wasn't built to encourage – and even disincentivizes – the emergence of governing coalitions common in the rest of Europe. The Fifth Republic may well have entered its terminal phase.”